The August reading was consistent with market consensus. At the same time, it remained on double-digit levels, as did the consumer inflation ratewhich amounted to in August 10.1 percent Every year.
At the same time, the central bank also announced other indicators of core inflation. Indicator after excluding administered prices, it amounted to 8.9% on an annual basis., compared to 9.6 percent in July. Reading excluding the most volatile prices, indicated the growth rate over 12 months at 12.7%., compared to 13.7 percent in July.
Core inflation shows how the growth rate of prices, excluding those for food and energyi.e. products most vulnerable to supply shocks. This reading gives you a picture of whether raises are a permanent thing and to what extent. High core inflation is also called “sticky”because its high level reflects attitude towards increasing prices for, among others, services.
Let us recall that after the official end of the cycle of interest rate increases announced by Adam Glapiński in July, the chairman of the Monetary Policy Council indicated that the next, “natural” step was to loosen monetary policy. The head of the central bank, but also other members of the body, including: Iwona Duda, Gabriela Masłowska and Ireneusz Dąbrowski pointed out that a rate cut will occur if inflation drops to single-digit levels.
However, this did not happen. However, this did not prevent the Council from a surprising move from the perspective of economists and investors, which reduced the main NBP rate, i.e. the reference rate, by 75 points. base up to 6 percent The response to this decision was very significant depreciation of the Polish zloty against major currencies. The rate of decline was comparable to this from the times of the pandemic or from the outbreak of war across the eastern border.
Between September 4 and 15 – the MPC decision was made on September 6 – The zloty lost 21 groszy against the dollar, 17 groszy against the euro, and 19 groszy against the Swiss franc.. It stopped further depreciation of the Polish currency “verbal intervention” of the head of the Polish Development FundPaweł Borys, who on September 13 in Bloomberg pointed out that “The Polish government has instruments to stabilize the zloty exchange rate.”
On the same day, in a comment summarizing the movement on the zloty quotations, analysts from XTB indicated that they also exclude currency intervention on the part of the NBP. On whether the central bank released some reserves for the purpose stabilizing the exchange rate of the Polish currencywe will find out at the earliest in the second half of October, when the report on NBP assets and liabilities in foreign currencies will be published.